Justin Pupavac, Antonio Badurina
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, Republic of Croatia
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2018.567
4th International Conference – ERAZ 2018 – KNOWLEDGE BASED SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, Sofia- Bulgaria, June 7, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; Faculty of Business Studies, Mediterranean University – Podgorica, Montenegro; University of National and World Economy – Sofia, Bulgaria; Faculty of Commercial and Business Studies – Celje, Slovenia; Faculty of Applied Management, Economics and Finance – Belgrade, Serbia, ISBN 978-86-80194-12-7
Abstract
The tourist nights variable is one of the most popular measures of tourism demand. In accordance the main objective of this paper is to estimate the number of tourist nights in Croatia by 2022. The analysis of the number of tourist nights in Croatia is based on the methods of descriptive statistics. To estimate the number of tourist nights in Croatia the moving averages methods and method of exponential smoothing are used. This methods are efficient and useful in the short run period. The main finding of this paper points to the fact that the number of tourist nights in Croatia will continue to show a growth trend in the coming period. Findings in this paper provides a good starting point to forecast tourism demand and could be helpful to tourist managers of all levels in making business decisions.
Key words
Croatia, tourism, tourist nights, forecast, moving-averages, exponential smoothin
References
- Bahovec V., Dumičić K., Čeh Časni A. (2008). Modeliranje turističke potražnje Republike Hrvatske modelom višestruke linearne regresije, Zbornik Ekonomskog fakulteta u Zagrebu, Vol.6 No.1.
- Baldigara, T., Štambuk, A., Mamula, M. (2013). Contribution to E-tourism Demand modelling. Informatologia, 46(4), 343-352., https://hrcak.srce.hr/113094
- DZS, Statistical Yearbooks of the Republic of Croatia, different years.
- Heizer, J. & Render, B. (2004): Operations Management, seventh edition, Prentice Hall.
- Mervar, A., Payne, J.E. (2007). An Analysis of Foreign Tourism Demand for Croatian Destinations: Long-Run Elasticity Estimates. Radni materijali EIZ-a, (1), 5-21., https://hrcak.srce.hr/71591
- Pupavac, J. (2017). Analysis and Forecast of Tourist Arrivals in Croatia, 24th International Congress, TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY 2018, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES, Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Opatija, April 26 – 27 2018.
- Witt, S., Song, H., Anhill, S. (2004). Forecasting tourism-generated employment: the case of Denmark, Tourism Economics, 10 (2), pp. 167 – 176.
- Schroeder, R. (1999). Upravljanje proizvodnjom, četvrto izdanje, Mate d.o.o., Zagreb.