Monika Kaczała – Department of Insurance, Poznań University of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodległości 10, 61-875
Poznań, Poland

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ERAZ.S.P.2019.69


5th International Conference – ERAZ 2019 – KNOWLEDGE BASED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, Budapest – Hungary, May 23, 2019, SELECTED PAPERS

Published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans – Belgrade, Serbia
Conference partners: Faculty of Economics and Business, Mediterranean University, Montenegro; University of National and World Economy – Sofia, Bulgaria; Faculty of Commercial and Business Studies – Celje, Slovenia; Faculty of Applied Management, Economics and Finance – Belgrade, Serbia;

ISBN 978-86-80194-21-9, ISSN 2683-5568, DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ERAZ.S.P.2019

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to investigate the cognitive perception of risk among Polish
farmers and the factors which have an impact on this perception. Statistical analysis and logit models
were applied for analysing the representative poll taken in February and March 2019 in Poland (N=200).
Farmers’ risk perception is dominated by the subjective factors (average loss caused by drought in the
previous year, frequency of other types of impact of drought, catastrophic potential of drought risk,
immediacy of effect, the degree to which the risk is known to science, number of farms susceptible to
drought, trust in experts’ assessment of drought, trust in the media informing about drought, age and
level of education) to a much higher extent than by the objective ones (monthly income, specialising in
plant output, high-cost crops, the share of income from farming in the whole income).

Key words

Drought, risk perception, Poland, agriculture.

References

[1] Elbehri, A., Challinor, A., Verchot, L., Angelsen, A., Hess, T., Ouled Belgacem, A., Clark,
H., Badraoui, M., Cowie, A., Silva, S. De, Erickson, J. Joar Hegland, S., Iglesias, A., Inouye,
D., Jarvis, A., Mansur, E., Mirzabaev, A., Montanarella, L., Murdiyarso, D., Notenbaert,
A., Obersteiner, M., Paustian, K., Pennock, D., Reisinger, A., Soto, D., Soussana,
J.-F., Thomas, R., Vargas, R., Wijk, M. Van and Walker, R. (2017) FAO-IPCC Expert
Meeting on Climate Change, Land Use and Food Security: Final Meeting Report; January
23-25, 2017 FAO HQ Rome. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/EM_FAO_
IPCC_report.pdf. Accessed November 2, 2017.
[2] Iglesias, A. and Garrote, L. (2015) Agricultural Water Management Adaptation strategies
for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe. Agricultural
Water Management 155, 113–124. https://ac.els-cdn.com/S037837741500089X/1-s2.0-
S037837741500089X-main.pdf?_tid=ece4c9f8-c2e7-11e7-a16c-00000aab0f6b&acdnat=
1509968883_b75abfa935106666eef0d5fada08d723. Accessed November 6, 2017.
[3] European Commission (2012) Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament,
the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee
of the Regions. Report on the Review of the European Water Scarcity and Droughts Policy.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52012DC0672&-
from=EN. Accessed November 2, 2017.
[4] JRC (2017) Severe drought in Italy – July 2017. http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/news/
EDODroughtNews201707_Italy.pdf.
[5] Explaining the lack of rain in Spain (and Italy) (2017). The Economist. https://www.economist.
com/europe/2017/08/10/explaining-the-lack-of-rain-in-spain-and-italy.
[6] JRC (2018) Drought in Central-Northern Europe – July 2018. http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
documents/news/EDODroughtNews201807_Central_North_Europe.pdf.

[7] OECD (2016) Mitigating Droughts and Floods in Agriculture. Policy Lessons and approaches.,
OECD Publishing, Paris.
[8] Ogurtsov, V. a., Asseldonk, M. a P.M. Van and Huirne, R.B.M. (2009) Purchase of catastrophe
insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. Review of Agricultural Economics
31, 143–162.
[9] Sherrick, B.J., Barry, P.J., Ellinger, P.N. and Schnitkey, G.D. (2004) Factors Influencing
Farmers’ crop Insurance Decisions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86, 103–
114.
[10] Dobbie, M.F. and Brown, R.R. (2014) A framework for understanding risk perception,
explored from the perspective of the water practitioner. Risk Analysis 34, 294–308.
[11] Harwood, J., Heifner, R., Coble, K., Perry, J. and Somwaru, A. (1999) Managing Risk in
Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis. Agricultural Economic Report 774, 1–83.
[12] Tucker, C.M., Eakin, H. and Castellanos, E.J. (2010) Perceptions of risk and adaptation:
Coffee producers, market shocks, and extreme weather in Central America and Mexico.
Global Environmental Change 20, 23–32.
[13] Duinen, R. van, Filatova, T., Geurts, P. and Veen, A. van der (2015) Empirical Analysis of
Farmers’ Drought Risk Perception: Objective Factors, Personal Circumstances, and Social
Influence. Risk Analysis 35, 741–755.
[14] Urquijo, J. and Stefano, L. De (2016) Perception of drought and local responses by farmers:
A perspective from the Jucar river Basin, Spain. Water Resources Management 30,
577–591.
[15] Bryan, K., Ward, S., Barr, S. and Butler, D. (2019) Coping with Drought: Perceptions, Intentions
and Decision-Stages of South West England Households. Water Resources Management
33, 1185–1202.
[16] Giordano, R. and Vurro, M. (2010) Fuzzy Cognitive Map to Support Conflict Analysis in
Drought Management. In: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing,
Ed: M. Glykas, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pp 403–425.
[17] Blanka, V., Ladányi, Z., Szilassi, P., Sipos, G., Rácz, A. and Szatmári, J. (2017) Public Perception
on Hydro-Climatic Extremes and Water Management Related to Environmental
Exposure, SE Hungary. Water Resources Management 31, 1619–1634.
[18] Boholm, Å. (2003) The cultural nature of risk: Can there be an anthropology of uncertainty?
Ethnos 68, 159–178.
[19] Central Statistical Office (2018) Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture, Warsaw.
[20] Aven, T. and Renn, O. (2010) Risk Management and Governance. Concept, Guidelines
and Applications, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg.
[21] Collins, R., Kristensen, P. and Thyssen, N. (2009) Water Resources Across Europe —
Confronting Water Scarcity and Drought.
[22] Lanen, H. a J. Van, Alderlieste, M. a, Acacio, V., Garnier, E., Gudmundsson, L., Monteagudo,
D.H., Lekkas, D., Paredes, J., Solera, A., Assimacopoulos, D., Rego, F., Seneviratne,
S., Stahl, K. and Tallaksen, L.M. (2013) Quantitative analysis of historic droughts in
selected European case study areas.
[23] Łabędzki, L. (2017) Parameterization of Drought Vulnerability in Agriculture. Infrastructure
and Ecology of Rural Areas II, 535–544.
[24] Rocha, M.S. and Lanen, H.A.J. Van (2015) Links Between Meteorological Drought Indices
and Yields (1979 – 2009) of the Main European Crops.
[25] Łabędzki, L. and Bąk, B. (2015) Indicator-based monitoring and forecasting water deficit
and surplus in agriculture in Poland. Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences
– SGGW. Land Reclamation 47, 355–369. https://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/
sggw/47/4/article-p355.xml.

[26] Kaczała, M. (2017) Perception of risk by farmers and crop insurance decisions –Polish case.
In: 21st APRIA 2017 Annual Conference; 30th July to 2nd August 2017. http://apria2017.
syskonf.pl/conf-data/APRIA2017/files/Paper Kaczala_APRIA_2017.pdf.
[27] Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision
under Risk. Econometrica 47, 263–292. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-
9682%28197903%2947%3A2%3C263%3APTAAOD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3. Accessed July
30, 2017.
[28] Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1986) Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions. The
Journal of Business 59, 251–278.
[29] Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (1973) On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological
Review 80, 237–251.
[30] Kaczała, M. and Wiśniewska, D. (2015) Polish farmers’ perception of spring frost and the
use of crop insurance against this phenomenon in Poland. Economic and Business Review
15, 90–111.
[31] Astfj, D. V, Peters, E. and Slovic, P. (2014) Cognition and Neurosciences The affect heuristic,
mortality salience, and risk: Domain-specific effects of a natural disaster on risk-benefit
perception. 527–532.
[32] Keller, C., Siegrist, M. and Gutscher, H. (2006) The role of the affect and availability heuristics
in risk communication. Risk Analysis 26, 631–639.
[33] Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Begg, C. and Kuhlicke, C. (2013) The risk perception paradox-
implications for governance and communication of natural hazards. Risk Analysis 33,
1049–1065.
[34] Paul Slovic (1987) Perception of Risk. Science 236, 280–285. http://socsci2.ucsd.edu/~aronatas/
project/academic/risk slovic.pdf.
[35] Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. and Lichtenstein, S. (1985) Characterizing perceived risk. https://
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2185557. Accessed July 7, 2017.
[36] Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. and Lichtenstein, S. (1985) Characterizing perceived risk. In: Perilous
progress: Managing the Hazards of Technology, Eds: R.W. Kates, C. Hohenemser
and J.X. Kasperson, Westview. pp 91–123.
[37] Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. and Lichtenstein, S. (1984) Behavioral decision theory perspectives
on risk and safety. Acta Psychologica 56, 183–203. https://www.researchgate.net/
profile/Baruch_Fischhoff/publication/256105116_Behavioral_Decision_Theory_Perspectives_
on_Risk_and_Safety/links/5619390a08ae78721f9cfed1/Behavioral-Decision-Theory-
Perspectives-on-Risk-and-Safety.pdf. Accessed July 30, 2017.
[38] Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S. and Combs, B. (1978) How safe is safe
enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Policy
Sciences 9, 127–152.
[39] Englander, T., Farago, K., Slovic, P. and Fischhoff, B. (1986) A comparative analysis of risk
perception in Hungary and the United States. Social Behaviour 1, 55–66.
[40] Teigen, K.H., Brun, W. and Slovic, P. (1988) Societal risks as seen by a Norwegian public.
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1, 111–130.
[41] Kleinhesselink, R.R. and Rosa, E.A. (1991) Cognitive Representation of Risk Perceptions:
A Comparison of Japan and the United States. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 22,
11–28.
[42] Karpowicz‐Lazreg, C. and Mullet, E. (1993) Societal Risk as Seen by the French Public.
Risk Analysis 13, 253–258.
[43] Goszczyńska, M., Tyszka, T. and Slovic, P. (1991) Risk perception in Poland: A comparison
with three other countries. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 4, 179–193.

[44] Kasperson, R.E., Renn, O., Slovic, P., Brown, H.S., Emel, J., Goble, R., Kasperson, J.X.
and Ratick, S. (1988) The social amplification of risk: A conceptual framework. Risk Analysis
8, 177–187.
[45] Kellens, W., Terpstra, T., Schelfaut, K. and Maeyer, P. De (2013) Perception and Communication
of Flood Risks: a systematic review of empirical research. Risk Analysis 33, 24 https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/3163311/file/6787664.pdf. Accessed July 28, 2017.
[46] Ullah, R., Shivakoti, G.P. and Ali, G. (2015) Factors effecting farmers’ risk attitude and
risk perceptions: The case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. International Journal of
Disaster Risk Reduction 13, 151–157. http://ac.els-cdn.com/S2212420915300121/1-s2.0-
S2212420915300121-main.pdf?_tid=1dec0962-45e8-11e7-a894-00000aacb35d&acdnat=
1496225069_a4bdb1f6c4366f71611b0cb57e30ad37. Accessed May 31, 2017.
[47] Ullah, R., Shivakoti, G.P., Zulfiqar, F., Iqbal, M.N. and Shah, A.A. (2017) Disaster risk
management in agriculture: tragedies of the smallholders. Natural Hazards 87, 1361–1375.
[48] Botzen, W.J.W., Aerts, J.C.J.H. and Bergh, J.C.J.M. Van Den (2009) Dependence of flood
risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors. Water Resources Research
45, 1–15.
[49] Kozielecki, J. (1977) Psychologiczna teoria decyzji, drugie por., Państwowe Wydawnictwo
Naukowe, Warszawa.
[50] Goszczyńska, M. (1997) Człowiek wobec zagrożeń, Wydawnictwo ‘Zak’, Warszawa.
[51] Ullah, R., Shivakoti, G.P., Kamran, A. and Zulfiqar, F. (2016) Farmers versus nature: managing
disaster risks at farm level. Natural Hazards 82, 1931–1945.
[52] Liu, F., Corcoran, C.P., Tao, J. and Cheng, J. (2016) Risk perception, insurance recognition
and agricultural insurance behavior–An empirical based on dynamic panel data
in 31 provinces of China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 20, 19–25.
http://www.sciencedirect.com.000042cv025a.han3.ue.poznan.pl/science/article/pii/
S2212420916301352. Accessed April 5, 2017.
[53] Birkholz, S., Muro, M., Jeffrey, P. and Smith, H.M. (2014) Rethinking the relationship between
flood risk perception and flood management. Science of The Total Environment 478,
12–20. http://www.sciencedirect.com.00004272012c.han3.ue.poznan.pl/science/article/pii/
S0048969714000709. Accessed May 10, 2017.
[54] Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B. and Kristofersson, D. (2017) Farmers’ perceptions
of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy 65,
109–120. http://ac.els-cdn.com.00004272014f.han3.ue.poznan.pl/S0264837717303812/1-
s2.0-S0264837717303812-main.pdf?_tid=70b6ca42-3576-11e7-aecf-00000aacb35d&acdnat=
1494417027_f5c92824ef98b14a266ea294c11f8347. Accessed May 10, 2017.
[55] Grothmann, T. and Patt, A. (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of
individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 15, 199–213. https://
www.pik-potsdam.de/news/public-events/archiv/alter-net/former-ss/2009/14.09.2009/
schroeter/literature/grothmann_patt.pdf. Accessed July 28, 2017.
[56] Wheeler, S., Zuo, A. and Bjornlund, H. (2013) Farmers’ climate change beliefs and adaptation
strategies for a water scarce future in Australia. Global Environmental Change 23,
537–547. http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights. Accessed July 30, 2017.