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The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and The Chaotic Growth Model

by | Feb 17, 2022 | DOI 2021 Conf Proc

ERAZ Conference 2021

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and The Chaotic Growth Model

 

Vesna Jablanovic – University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Nemanjina 6, 11081 Belgrade, Serbia

 

7th International Scientific ERAZ Conference – ERAZ 2021 – Conference Proceedings: KNOWLEDGE BASED SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,  Online/virtual, May 27, 2021

ERAZ Conference Proceedings published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans – Belgrade, Serbia

ERAZ conference partners: Faculty of Economics and Business, Mediterranean University, Montenegro; University of National and World Economy – Sofia, Bulgaria; Faculty of Commercial and Business Studies – Celje, Slovenia; AMBIS University, Prague – Czech Republic; Faculty of Applied Management, Economics and Finance – Belgrade, Serbia

ERAZ Conference 2021 Conference Proceedings: ISBN 978-86-80194-46-2, ISSN 2683-5568, DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ERAZ.2021

Keywords:
Financial markets;
Financial crises;
Equilibrium

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/ERAZ.2021.163

Abstract: Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (the S&P 500) includes the stocks of 500 of the most widely traded stocks in the U.S. It represents about 80% of the total value of U.S. stock markets. The basic aims of this paper are: firstly, to create the simple chaotic stock market index growth model that is capa­ble of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos; secondly, to analyze the local stability of the S&P 500 index movements in the period 1932-1982; thirdly, to analyze the local stability of the S&P 500 index movements in the period 1982-2009; and fourthly, to discover the equilibrium levels of the S&P 500 index in the observed periods. This paper confirms the existence of the stable convergent fluctuations of the S&P 500 index in the observed periods. Further, two Elliot wave patterns were identified in the period 1932-2009. Also, the golden ratio can be used to define the equilibrium level of the S&P 500 index in the presented chaotic model.

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